Analysis and Simulation of HIV Infected Children Transmission Dynamics in Turkey Using a Mathematical Model

Abstract

Child HIV infections are an important part of HIV prevalence today. The path of infection can occur either vertically, from mother to a child, or horizontally via sexual contact, blood transfusion, etc. Observations show that children begin to increase HIV by sexual contact in Turkey. In this study, the aim is examining the transmission HIV dynamics in children in Turkey using a mathematical model.SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Removed) mathematical modelling is used to determine the characteristics of infectious diseases. In this study, an SIR model was used with 3 equilibrium points. These are defined as no transmission, vertical and horizontal transmission routes denoted as the basic replication numbers R1 and R2, respectively. Equilibrium points’ stability analysis was provided by using the Lyapunov function. If R1 < 1 and R2 < 1, vertical and horizontal transmission are not significant, if R1 < 1 and R2 > 1; the epidemic occurs via horizontal transmission, and for the condition R1 > 1 and R2 < 1, the epidemic occurs through the vertical transmission route.KeywordsVertical transmission routes of pediatric HIVHorizontal transmission routes of pediatric HIVMathematical modelTurkey