Analysis and risk assessment of the introduction of small ruminant plague pathogens, sheep pox and goat pox through the territory of the West Kazakhstan region into the Russian Federation

Abstract

Sheep pox and goat pox (GFP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) are infectious diseases of viral nature that mainly affect small ruminants. In domestic animals these are sheep and goats and in wildlife saigas, ibex, antelope and so on. These diseases are considered to be emergent infections, since they are characterized by a transboundary route of entry and spread, as well as causing enormous economic damage in small livestock due to almost 100% mortality and high lethality. Studies have shown that there is a high risk of introduction of emergent infectious diseases pathogens from the territory of West Kazakhstan region (through Kaztalovsky district) to Alexandrovo-Gaysky district of Saratov region. The risk is assessed as high, due to the fact that the largest number of susceptible small ruminants is concentrated on the territory of Kaztalovsky district, which amounts to 287640 heads. Small ruminants’ population density in this district was 15.5 heads/km2. The highest number of cattle is also observed on the territory of Kaztalovsky district (which is 117893 heads, which is of certain importance when keeping cattle and cattle together as a potential source-virus carrier of pathogens of the considered infections. Risk scoring, taking into account the criterion of availability of international routes of communication, showed 2 points out of 5. But, taking into account the fact that the interstate border is not marked and there is no control line, it entails the free movement of both wild and farm animals, in addition, the risk of uncontrolled movement and transportation of animals and livestock products through anthropogenic factor increases. Taking into account these facts, the risk can be assessed as 5 points out of 5.