Abstract
Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling method, this research analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and land use structure in China. The results show that our model is feasible, and the simulation results are of a certain stability. Under the scenario analysis and projection of the relationship between the industrial structure and land use structure of the thirty-one provinces in China from 2010 to 2020, the proportions of secondary and tertiary industry in each province have been increasing; correspondingly, the proportion of agriculture has been decreasing. This means that the industrial structure of China is changing. As for land use, in general, the trend is similar to the industrial structure changes. The transformation of the structure of industrial development and land use has driven economic structure changes in China. The economic structure has an inclination to transform from agriculture to both secondary and tertiary industry. Along with industrial transformation, the cultivated land in China shows a trend of continuous decline. Empirical analysis results indicate that a decrease of cultivated land is acceptable under the scenario of economic growth in the next ten years. This shows a possibility that the economic efficiency of land use for cultivation and business services will decline, and more attention ought to be paid to increasing the economic efficiency of land use.
Highlights
Land is the foundation of human survival, as well as the basic material for social production [1].Land use is a process in which humans transform natural land to meet the demands of socio-economic development
In this paper, based on an analysis of the current pattern of land use in China, we examined the relationship between industrial structure and land use structure in the thirty-one provinces (Note: Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao have not been included, due to a lack of statistical data)
The BAU scenario is set according to the forecast of the economic development in China, which could act as the baseline to be compared with other scenarios
Summary
Land is the foundation of human survival, as well as the basic material for social production [1]. In this paper, based on an analysis of the current pattern of land use in China, we examined the relationship between industrial structure and land use structure in the thirty-one provinces (Note: Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao have not been included, due to a lack of statistical data). This will help us research future decision making in the optimization of land use structure and contribute to further reformation of industrial development under advanced land management planning. At the end of this paper, we provide the conclusions of this research and a discussion of further research directions
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