Abstract
The novel coronavirus outbreak was first reported in late December 2019 and more than 7 million people were infected with this disease and over 0.40 million worldwide lost their lives. The first case was diagnosed on 30 January 2020 in India and the figure crossed 0.24 million as of 6 June 2020. This paper presents a detailed study of recently developed forecasting models and predicts the number of confirmed, recovered, and death cases in India caused by COVID-19. The correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression applied for prediction and autocorrelation and autoregression have been used to improve the accuracy. The predicted number of cases shows a good agreement with 0.9992 R-squared score to the actual values. The finding suggests that lockdown and social distancing are two important factors that can help to suppress the increasing spread rate of COVID-19.
Highlights
The coronavirus disease spreads through getting in touch with an infected person, touching a thing or object that has the virus on its surface and touching their mouth, eyes, ears, or nose
We propose a model for predicting the number of confirmed, recovered, and death cases due to COVID-19
This study identified that novel coronavirus has a genetic similarity with coronavirus derived from rhinolophus sinicus, Big Data Mining and Analytics, June 2021, 4(2): 65-75 paradoxurus hermaphroditus, paguma larvata, aselliscus stoliczkanus, and civet, while homology analysis shows that it has close resemblance with bat coronavirus
Summary
The coronavirus disease spreads through getting in touch with an infected person, touching a thing or object that has the virus on its surface and touching their mouth, eyes, ears, or nose. We propose a model for predicting the number of confirmed, recovered, and death cases due to COVID-19. Many researchers involved in the study of novel coronavirus after the outbreak at Wuhan, China in late December 2019 and developed various types of models for prediction of its spread, transmission, and death caused by it. Singh et al.[25] analyzed time series data and predicted the registered, deceased, and death numbers per reported case (mortality rate) based on COVID-19's world health data for the world population. If positive cases are very low, binary elimination algorithms are the better option These studies revealed that symptoms of COVID19 are similar to SARS and MERS. Analysis of the COVID-19 dataset for coronavirus disease is performed on the basis of reported cases (confirmed, recovered, and death) in India.
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