Analysis and prediction of traffic fatalities resulting from angle collisions including the effect of vehicles’ configuration and compatibility

Abstract

Although the rapid growth in light truck vehicle (LTV) sales, including minivans, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and light-duty trucks, has not been associated with an overall increase in collisions or traffic deaths in the US, there is a need for a research program to determine whether particular types of collisions have become more frequent or injurious because of the increase in the percent of LTVs in traffic. This paper presents an analysis of the effect of the increasing number of LTV registrations on fatal angle collision trends in the US. The analysis investigates the number of annual fatalities that result from angle collisions as well as collision configuration (car–car, car–LTV, LTV–car, and LTV–LTV). The analysis uses the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) crash databases covering the period 1975–2000. Results showed that death rates differ based on the collision configuration. Time series modeling results showed that fatalities in angle collisions will increase in the next 10 years, and that they are affected by the expected increase in the percentage of LTVs in traffic. Forecast showed that the total number of annual deaths is expected to reach 6300 deaths by the year 2010 (an increase of 12% over 2000). Analysis into the configuration of the collision indicated the seriousness of angle collisions involving an LTV striking a common passenger car (LTV–car). A time series model illustrated the significance of time lag and percent of LTVs in traffic on the increase of this type of fatal collisions. Forecasts from the time series model indicated a 32% increase in deaths due to this type of collisions in the next 10 years.