Abstract
Banking is crucial for a country's financial system. Also, the performance of banks can indicate the confidence of investors in the financial market and the overall situation of the country's economy to a certain extent. As the CSBI index reflects the overall performance of Chinese banking stocks, predicting the relevant price movements can predict how the banking industry will move over time to come and help investors make investment decisions. Under this circumstance, the paper selects the CSBI closing price from January 2th, 2019 to August 11th, 2023 and build the ARIMA (0,1,0) model to make predictions based on these data. The conclusion shows that the ARIMA model has good forecasting abilities in the short term, but its timeliness is relatively poor in the long term. Finally, on the basis of these analyses, the paper summarizes the development trend of the industry in the short term, lists the reasons for the inaccuracy of the long-term forecast from different aspects and provides suggestions for investors.
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