Analysis and Prediction of Sulfate Erosion Damage of Concrete in Service Tunnel Based on ARIMA Model.

Dunwen Liu,Kunpeng Cao,Haofei Chen,Chun Gong,Yu Tang,Yinghua Jian

doi:10.3390/ma14195904

Abstract

Sulfate erosion is a major cause of concrete durability deteriorations, especially for the service tunnels that suffer sulfate erosion for a long time. Accurately predicting the concrete damage failure under sulfate erosion has been a challenging problem in the evaluation and maintenance of concrete structures. Here we design the dry–wet cycle test of service tunnel concrete under sulfate erosion and analyze the Elastic relative dynamic modulus (Erd) and mass under 35 times cycle periods. Then we develop an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction model linking damage failure to Erd and mass. The results show that the deterioration of concrete first increased and then decreased with an extension of the dry–wet cycle period. Moreover, based on a finite set of training data, the proposed prediction approach shows high accuracy for the changes of concrete damage failure parameters in or out of the training dataset. The ARIMA method is proven to be feasible and efficient for predicting the concrete damage failure of service tunnels under sulfate erosion for a long time.

Highlights

With the popularization of concrete material, people began to use concrete material for infrastructure construction on a large scale
This paper introduces in detail the method of sulfate erosion loss failure of in-service tunnels combined with mass nondestructive testing, ultrasonic nondestructive testing and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) computer learning model
According to the proposed method, the study of sulfate erosion loss failure of concrete in-service tunnels can be divided into three stages

Summary

Introduction

With the popularization of concrete material, people began to use concrete material for infrastructure construction on a large scale. The prediction of erosion failure of the second lining concrete in the service tunnel under a sulfate erosion environment has become one of the problems that urgently need to be solved in tunnel construction. Complex damage mechanism of concrete under sulfate erosion and numerous influencing factors, many scholars explored the damage failure mechanism of sulfate erosion through various experimental methods to establish a research method for predicting damage failure of concrete under sulfate erosion. Rui He studied the damage mechanism of concrete at the microscopic level, namely the interfacial transition zone, under sulfate erosion in the dry–wet cycle process. Many scholars have focused on concrete sulfate erosion and explored it through experimental methods, the prediction of concrete damage failure for in-service tunnels is limited. The ARIMA model was a time series prediction method proposed by

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Conclusion