Analysis and Prediction of Poverty Rate along with Other Economic Factors in the United States

Abstract

Poverty is an everlasting issue that affects everyone on the globe, and it is of crucial importance to lift people out of poverty. It is part of the UN SDGs and a macroeconomic goal of most countries. Thus, it is important to understand patterns and make predictions of poverty rate. In this paper, data from the US Census Bureau and The Balance are used to form timeseries analysis. In addition to poverty rate alone, unemployment rate and inflation rate are used to generate dynamic regression model for more complete and accurate predictions. The result of modeling and prediction shows that poverty rate in the United States will most likely increase in the following years to around 15 to 16 precent and then gradually decrease. It is also likely that it will fluctuate around 12%. Overall, the result is a sign that potential measures should be taken to mitigate the possible effects of a predicted increasing poverty rate.