Analysis and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Korgalzhyn District, Kazakhstan

Abstract

Changes occurring because of human activity in protected natural places require constant monitoring of land use (LU) structures. Therefore, Korgalzhyn District, which occupies part of the Korgalzhyn State Natural Reserve territory, is of considerable interest. The aim of these studies was to analyze changes in the composition of the land use/land cover (LULC) of Korgalzhyn District from 2010 to 2021 and predict LU transformation by 2030 and 2050. Landsat image classification was performed using Random Forest on the Google Earth Engine. The combined CA-ANN model was used to predict LULC changes by 2030 and 2050, and studies were carried out using the MOLUSCE plugin. The results of these studies showed that from 2010 to 2021, there was a steady increase in the share of ploughable land and an adequate reduction in grassland. It is established that, in 2030 and 2050, this trend will continue. At the same time, there will be no drastic changes in the composition of other land classes. The obtained results can be helpful for the development of land management plans and development policies for the Korgalzhyn District.