Abstract
The rapid development of urbanization, population growth, and unreasonable use of land resources have made the contradiction between human beings and land increasingly prominent, and the carrying capacity of land resources has become an important factor affecting the sustainable development of a city or even a country. Based on the carrying capacity of agricultural land, construction land, and ecological land in 31 provinces of China, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the carrying capacity of land resources in 31 provinces of China from 2008 to 2016 by using single-factor carrying capacity evaluation and comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation methods. The evaluation results were divided into six levels (No pressure, Lower pressure, Low pressure, Medium pressure, High pressure, Higher pressure), and the ArcGIS10.2 software was used for visualization, and the carrying capacity prediction model was constructed to predict the development trend of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in 2020 and 2025. The results showed that China’s land carrying capacity is extremely unbalanced. Whether from the evaluation results of single-factor carrying capacity or comprehensive carrying capacity, we showed the characteristics of high pressure in the east and low pressure in the west, and that the regional land resources have a deteriorating trend. Through the prediction of the future land resource carrying capacity index, it was found that the comprehensive carrying capacity index of land resources in 31 provinces of China will still show an upward trend in the future.
Highlights
Land resources are the material basis and prerequisite for human survival and development, and play an irreplaceable role in human life [1]
The cultivated land carrying capacity index reflects the pressure of population on cultivated land resources
We divided the results of cultivated land resource carrying capacity index in 2016 into four categories according to the natural breakpoint method
Summary
Land resources are the material basis and prerequisite for human survival and development, and play an irreplaceable role in human life [1]. In the process of urbanization, the rapid development of industries and the explosive growth of population have caused excessive consumption of land resources, resulting in serious resource constraints and environmental pollution problems, such as the sharp reduction of arable land, environmental degradation, and so on. These problems limit the economic development of a city and hinder the process of sustainable development of a city. Based on the current situation of land resources overload, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out the evaluation of land resources carrying capacity and explore the improvement of dynamic monitoring and early warning mechanism of land resources carrying capacity [9]
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