Analysis and prediction of industrial energy conservation in underdeveloped regions of China using a data pre-processing grey model

Abstract

Abstract: As industrialisation continues to accelerate in China, underdeveloped regions are required to reduce their energy consumption. In this study, we examined industrial energy conservation in China's policy guidance and formulation, and the development of industrial energy conservation in the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Using a pre-processing grey model GM(1, 3), we forecast the energy consumption per unit of industrial added-values during the 2015–2020 period with higher accuracy than the untreated model. To comprehensively understand the energy consumptions of the primary products of six high energy-consuming industries, we established pre-processing GM(1,1) for the 2017–2024 period. The results show that the ecological development path not only promotes economic and industrial developments but also significantly reduces energy consumption. Moreover, the annual reduction rate of energy consumption per unit product is projected to be moderate during the 2015–2020 period than during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Finally, we investigate and analyse the existing problems of industrial energy conservation and the development of the six industries. This study offers policy suggestions for industrial energy conservation in underdeveloped regions.