Abstract
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) over East China on June 5, 2009 was thoroughly analyzed using an Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) system. The analyzed reflectivity structure, location and intensity compared well with observation, and were substantially better than an experiment without radar data assimilation. The cold pool and wind speed in the convective regions were strengthened. With improved initial conditions, the impact of single‐moment (SM), double‐moment (DM) and triple‐moment (TM) microphysics parameterization (MP) schemes on ensemble forecasts of MCSs was evaluated. The use of multi‐moment (MM) MP schemes showed some improvements in neighborhood ensemble probability for reflectivity and precipitation. Quantitative reflectivity and precipitation forecast skills were also improved in MM forecasts, with those of the TM forecast the best.
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