Analysis and morbidity prognosis for stomach and esophageal cancers in the regions of Kazakhstan

Abstract

IntroductionEsophageal cancer and stomach cancer occupy the leading places in the structure of morbidity and mortality not only in Kazakhstan but also around the world.MethodsMorbidity prognosis for esophageal and stomach cancers within the regions of Kazakhstan was conducted on the basis of on the level of morbidity from 1999 to 2013. Correlation analysis was used for estimation. Morbidity prognosis was conducted by fitting time‐series models, constructed on the basis of<a name=“_GoBack”> </a>dynamic series for the observation period and its extrapolation to 2015‐2016. The length of the prognosis period was determined by the quantity of data.ResultsA strong association was found between the level of morbidity with cancer of esophagus and stomach (r=0.76‐0.78), predominantly in southern regions of the country. A moderate positive association was found in western regions; in other regions there was weak/no association of the level of morbidity with cancer of stomach and esophagus (r<0.33). In general the trend of reduction of morbidity with cancer of esophagus and stomach has been noted in in Kazakhstan; however, the nature of reduction of oncological morbidity is different. In the coming years, comparatively high levels of morbidity are expected in northern and eastern regions of the country (with a downward trend), and also in the central region.ConclusionsThe pattern in the level of morbidity of cancer of the esophagus and stomach in general is subject to common social processes law of development – reduction of morbidity level with decrease of reduction rate. The most common function for reflection of dynamics law of oncological morbidity is a logarithmic function.