Analysis and Modeling of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Commissioning of Residential Real Estate in Russia

Abstract

The system of statistical indicators, which is necessary for the construction of mathematical and statistical models that reflect modern domestic trends in the development of the residential real estate market is explained. The official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR), and the Unified Housing Construction Information System (UIIS) served as information sources for the empirical component of the study.Based on quarterly data for 2010–2021 using ARIMA and SARIMA models, a time series of residential real estate commissions in the Russian Federation was modeled and predicted for 2022. Both models make it possible to account for the influence of the seasonal component. Based on results of the time series regression analysis, the authors selected a mathematical and statistical model with the best approximating characteristics. To model the volume of commissioning of residential real estate in the Russian market, with due regard to the influence of macroeconomic factors, the ARMAX model was used, which has significant explanatory power.The results of the study presented in the article may be of interest to analytical agencies, developers, banking professionals, financiers, economists, analysts of the real estate market or related areas, as well as authorities for strategic planning of the development of the real estate market.