Analysis and Modeling of Risk Factors for Children with Intestinal Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Abstract

To analyze factors associated with intestinal acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation(allo-HSCT) in children and to develop a prediction model for intestinal aGVHD after allo-HSCT in children. The clinical data of 62 children who underwent allo-HSCT at the Department of Hematology of the People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from February 2018 to September 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Intestinal aGVHD was evaluated according to the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) grading criteria, the variables were screened by LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression analysis with 10-fold cross-validation, and developed a model for predicting intestinal aGVHD after allo-HSCT in children. A total of 33 (53.2%) of the 62 children developed intestinal aGVHD, of which 25 were degree II and 8 were degree III-IV. The results of screening variables by 10-fold cross-validated LASSO regression showed that the significant variables included ethnic minorities (OR =7.229; 95%CI: 2.337-22.354), platelet (PLT) (OR =0.971; 95%CI: 0.932-0.993), uric acid (UA) (OR =0.971; 95%CI: 0.935-0.988), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR =1.217; 95%CI: 1.053-1.545), and viral infection (OR =10; 95%CI: 3.021-32.668), and these variables were independently associated with intestinal aGVHD in children (all P <0.05). A prediction model was constructed based on above variables. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the model was calculated, and the AUC value was 0.985 (0.966-1), the Brier score was 0.055. The evaluation showed that the model has a high degree of discrimination and calibration. Ethnic minorities, low PLT, low UA, high CRP, and viral infections are independently associated with intestinal aGVHD in children, and early attention should be paid to these high-risk children.