Analysis and modeling of developing passenger traffic on public transport routes of urban transport systems

Abstract

Problem. To solve the problems of rational organization of work of urban passenger transport on the routes and determine the modes of vehicles work and labor of drivers of motor transport enterprises when carrying out transportation of the city population. It is necessary to know all the input conditions for creating traffic schedules on the route. One of the main parameters is the existing traffic volumes on a certain public transport route. In order to improve the management of transportation on the routes of urban passenger transport, various approaches to their survey were considered, the problem of studying traffic volumes for further drawing up traffic schedules was identified. In this article, the task was to analyze the work of a separate route and passenger traffic on it. Goal. The goal is studying passenger traffic on a separate public transport route, studying the regularities of traffic volumes and their dependence on operating time. Methodology. When fulfilling the task, the procedure by which the input data is processed is given. Having examined the known methods and principles of applying certain groups of methods to solve various types of problems, to solve the problem of organizing work on the route, namely, to distribute changes in the operation of vehicles for the transportation of passengers, we opted for a readable tabular method of examining passenger traffic. Thus, an incoming sequence of values was obtained, which we presented as time series levels. An analysis of incoming time series was carried out, their modeling using an adaptive algorithmic method. Results. A method of using computer mathematics systems for modeling and predicting input time series was developed, during which the solution process was programmed and the results of adaptive algorithmic modeling of passenger traffic dependencies on time were obtained, which can be used to build schedules for the movement of vehicles during passenger transportation by public transport. Originality. Passenger traffic on a separate route was investigated, the methodology of this study was presented, all components of the time series were taken into account and modeled. The graphic representation was provided. This article has developed programs for performing modeling and forecasting using adaptive algorithmic models. Practical value. This provides an opportunity to investigate the passenger traffic of any passenger transport route, carrying out transportation, sequences of volume whose values have similar components of the time series. The result of these studies is building a model and obtaining forecast values, which plays a large role in management of road passenger transport.