Analysis and model-based predictions of solar PV and battery adoption in Germany: an agent-based approach

Abstract

In order to tackle energy challenges faced in Germany, a Feed-in Tariff program was created in 2004 to aid the adoption of solar PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems where owners of such systems are paid a certain amount for each unit of electricity generated. Solar PV electricity generation is limited due to its intermittency but this can be managed using batteries. In this paper, we study the adoption of PV and battery (PV-battery) systems in Germany, and evaluate policies that could improve the adoption of these systems and their impact on the electric grid. To do this, we create an agent-based model that is simulated to estimate the impacts of different policies; this model is informed by an online survey with respondents from Germany. Simulating adoption over a period of 10 years, the results show that increasing electricity prices could result in improved PV-battery adoption in Germany better than reducing PV-battery system prices could. In addition, given the high level of affinity of people towards PV systems in Germany, disconnection from the grid would be a viable option within the next 10 years.