Analysis and mathematical modeling of the survival kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in raw pork under dynamic and static temperature conditions.

Abstract

The incidence of frequent foodborne disease outbreaks due to Staphylococcus aureus contamination necessitates the urgent searching for effective methods to monitor S. aureus. This research aims to construct model with a dynamic survival curve and some static growth curves to predict the behavior of S. aureus in raw pork. Lack of research about S. aureus kinetics in pork under fluctuating temperature conditions across freezing and thawing necessitates this study. One‐step analysis was used to determine the model parameters, which was more efficient than conventional model analysis with two steps. The results of kinetic analysis showed that Tmin (minimum growth temperature) was 6.85°C, which is close to the estimated values in previous reports. Subsequently, validation results indicated the integrated model can accurately predict the behavior of S. aureus regardless of isothermal or nonisothermal conditions with the root‐mean‐square errors (RMSE < 0.44 log CFU/g, 73.9% of the errors of prediction falls within ±0.5 log CFU/g), accuracy factors Af and bias factors Bf were both close to 1. This work may offer an effective method for the assessment of microbial security related to S. aureus in pork.