Analysis and Forecasting of Viral Hepatitis A Morbidity in the Russian Federation Using the Wald’s Schedule

Abstract

Objective of the study was to conduct the analysis and develop the method of forecasting of viral hepatitis A (VHA) incidence using Wald’s schedule. Materials and methods. The work is based on official statistical data of the Rospotrebnadzor on the VHA morbidity rates in the Russian Federation and Moscow city between 2010 and 2016. Results and discussion. It is established that in the overall incidence of VHA cases in the Russian Federation over the period of 2010–2016, 67.7 % were registered among adults and 32.3 % – among children; as for the incidence among adults in Moscow, it accounted for 79.8 %, and for children – 20.2 %. To assess epidemiological situation on VHA, forecasting approach using Wald’s schedule was put forward. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, the threshold values for morbidity rates among adult population in Moscow stood at 38 cases, fluctuations in mean values ranged from 48 to 63 cases. It is shown that the total minimum and maximum levels of morbidity among adult population in 2017 would account for 180 and 624 cases, respectively. Forecast of incidence among children is determined on an accrual basis: minimum monthly level – 7 cases, maximum – 17. Monthly growth of infection is 0.9 cases. It is revealed that possible cumulative minimum and maximum morbidity rates among children would amount to 84 and 204 cases in 2017, respectively. The proposed method of Wald’s schedule for VHA incidence forecasting will allow for determining both monthly minimum and maximum rates of infection for the upcoming period and provide for timely planning of anti-epidemic measures.