ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE CHUVASH REPUBLIC

Abstract

The article presents a forecast for agriculture development in the Chuvash Republic up to 2022 according to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Agriculture occupies a special position in the region's economy and is a system-forming industry. The share of agriculture in the gross regional product makes 9%, which is significantly higher than in other regions of the country, and the share of residents living in rural areas is 36.6%. Structurally, the agriculture of the Chuvash Republic is quite balanced. During the study period from 2010–2019, significant positive changes in the industry can be noted. Thus, the production of basic agricultural products increased by 1.93, and the gross output of basic crops increased by 2.16. However, despite the positive trends, there are still problems in certain areas. The production of the animal husbandry main products during the study period decreased by 135.6 thousand tons; the agricultural machinery fleet in agricultural organizations decreased by 1.97; the number of livestock decreased by 147.3 thousand heads. In order to predict future changes in the industry, the authors, based on the dynamics of indicators for 2010–2019 that characterize agricultural production in the Chuvash Republic, and using the Excel program, proposed three options for the development of the situation for 2020–2022 – optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Studies have shown that a pessimistic development scenario is more likely to be implemented, which requires immediate corrective actions in the agricultural sector of the Chuvash Republic.