Analysis and forecast of the substitution potential of China's wind power-hydrogen production for fossil fuel hydrogen production

Abstract

The predominant utilization of fossil fuels for hydrogen production in China leads to substantial carbon emissions, posing a challenge to China's objective of achieving carbon neutrality. With the rapid development of wind power in China, hydrogen can be produced through water electrolysis powered by wind-generated electricity. This process offers the potential to gradually replace the hydrogen production from fossil fuel (grey hydrogen), thus promoting the low-carbon transformation of China's hydrogen energy industry. However, further investigation is required to determine the potential displacement of grey hydrogen through the production of hydrogen from wind power in China in the future. To address this issue, this study first obtained wind speed data for the entire China region from the MERRA-2 database. Subsequently, based on the wind speed data for each specific area, the wind turbine model with the lowest power generation cost was selected from the eight available wind turbine models. On this basis, the mixed integer linear programming method is used to construct the cost analysis model of wind power-hydrogen production (WPHP). Based on the local wind power generation data, calculations are performed to determine the optimal installed capacity of the wind turbine, electrolyzer, and hydrogen storage tank within the WPHP system. Additionally, the optimal scheduling of the WPHP system is determined. These optimizations collectively result in the best WPHP cost. Based on this research, the optimal cost of WPHP for each geographical grid in China can be calculated and compared with the local grey hydrogen cost. The analysis reveals that in some areas of Xinjiang, Gansu, and Guizhou, exhibit low costs of wind power. This suggests that the substitution of grey hydrogen with WPHP can be achieved in these areas. Based on technological progress and changes in carbon trading prices, this paper predicts that WPHP in China could potentially replace 16.35–28.69 million tons of grey hydrogen by 2040. Moreover, by 2060, WPHP in China is projected to replace 76.72–92.01 million tons of grey hydrogen. According to the sensitivity analysis conducted, it has been determined that the efficiency of the electrolyzer and the price of the wind power equipment exert the greatest impact on the cost of hydrogen production.