Analysis and forecast of the state of environmental protection in Russia

Abstract

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input-Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are: -methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy; -a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input-Output Model of the Russian economy; -a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed; -calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.