Analysis and forecast of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Mainland China, 1985-2016.

Abstract

We aimed to forecast the number of unidentified and newly acquired HIV-infected individuals each year and to estimate the effectiveness of government prevention and control programs in China. Dynamic and stochastic models were established based on officially published data regarding the four main modes of transmission: male homosexual sexual behavior, heterosexual sexual behavior, injection drug use (IDU) and plasma donation. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses on model parameters. Nationally, by December 2016, approximately 280790 individuals were estimated to have an unidentified HIV infection, with transmission via male homosexual sexual behavior (n=100710), heterosexual sexual behavior (n=174310), IDU (n=5620) and plasma donation (n=150). Moreover, 196970 newly acquired HIV-infected individuals were expected in 2016, via male homosexual sexual behavior (n=78610), heterosexual sexual behavior (n=116,540), IDU (n=1820), and plasma donation (n<2). Our results show that HIV transmission via IDU and plasma donation has been effectively controlled; transmission via heterosexual sexual contact is being somewhat controlled; however, transmission via male homosexual sexual contact is not controlled. Hence, China should strengthen efforts aimed at control of unsafe sexual behaviors.