Analysis and forecast of passenger flows in public transport - the case of Poland

Abstract

Public transportation provides its services to both urban centers and neighboring areas in the immediate vicinity of the city. The problem of urban transportation is evident, the number of people willing to use public transportation has decreased. Therefore, there is a need to delve into the issue and conduct an analysis of the demand for urban transportation in Poland in 2000-2030, this will allow us to assess in what direction urban transportation is heading, whether there is an increase in the number of people using it, or whether there is a downward trend (Zielińska 2018). Based on CSO statistics from 2009-2020 for the analysis of demand for public transportation in Poland, a forecast of people using public transportation was conducted using Statistica software for 2021-2030. Due to the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic, the study was conducted in 2 ways – with and without 2020. Public transportation will make less and less profit and even losses for the next few years through rising gasoline and energy prices. Virtually in each of the provinces, and likewise throughout Poland, a decline in the number of people willing to use public transportation is evident. conclusions. On the basis of the surveys carried out, there is a general trend that shows the current state of public transport. In most of the cases studied, a similar conclusion emerges, namely that public transport will experience a marked decline in the coming years. The number of people who want to use public transport will decrease, mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and people’s fears for their own safety.