Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 in India, USA and Italy - an application of ARIMA Model

Abstract

Background Corona virus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading rapidly across the world. Analyzing and predicting COVID-19 prevalence will help governments to take necessary actions in controlling the spread. Time series analysis has proved to be efficient for estimating future impact in such circumstances. Methods Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict the epidemiological trend of pandemic in India, The USA and Italy up-to 20 July 2020. A 15 day forecast were made to study the future scenario. Results We could identify that all the countries had a linear trend in the increase of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our studies produced a 15 day forecast results for India, US and Italy. the 95% PI for 20 July 2020 are, (25821.72 , 32991.38), (44278.89 , 87095.68) and (-2935.20, 2685.14) respectively for the three countries. Conclusion The US and India will have a rise in number of daily counts of COVID-19. Italy will gradually slow the pace. It is supposed that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.