Analysis and Forecast of China's Unemployment Rate

Abstract

The unemployment rate is an important economic indicator that measures the proportion of the unemployed labor force. The natural unemployment rate is the normal unemployment rate based on economic fluctuations. Analyze the unemployment rate to determine its root causes. By forecasting the unemployment rate, people can obtain an estimate of the future conditions of the labor market. Not only can the government make policy adjustments based on this, people can use this prediction to make wise career choices and planning, or to learn the necessary skills. The risk of unemployment is closely related to everyone, especially now during the economic downturn due to the impact of global catastrophic events such as COVID-19. Understanding the unemployment rate is an important part of analyzing the characteristics of the current labor market. If we can make more connections about the labor market and even make rough predictions about future trends, college students will be able to make future career choices that are more suitable for them. This study predicts the unemployment rate in the next nine years based on China's unemployment rate from 2012 to 2022, which will fluctuate within a fixed range. The government can increase spending (such as on education) and use monetary and finance polices to ensure that unemployment does not exceed forecasts.