Analysis and extreme event prediction of waves in the eastern shelf seas of China based on a 44-year hindcast

Abstract

Analysis and extreme event prediction of regional waves are crucial for the design, spatial layout and protection of ocean engineering structures. In this study, the regional wave characteristic is analysed in the eastern shelf seas of China based on a 44-year wave hindcast. The spatial variation of peak period is smaller than that of significant wave height, which may be affected by swell propagation, and the seasonal distribution differences of these parameters can generally be explained by changes in the East Asian monsoon and are significantly affected by tropical cyclones. Both local wind wave and remotely generated swell should be considered when designing ocean structures. In addition, the joint distribution characteristics of wave period and height reveal a natural regional classification of representative wave states, which can be used to avoid deploying structures near classification boundaries. The extreme wave events are characterized by their number, duration and intensity, highlighting areas susceptible to extreme waves. Meanwhile, the extreme event is predicted, and its return patterns are highly consistent with weather system characteristics such as tropical cyclone tracks. The results can provide a significant basis for the design and protection of ocean engineering structures.