Analysing Witczak 1-37A, Witczak 1-40D and Modified Hirsch Models for asphalt dynamic modulus prediction using global sensitivity analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT The dynamic modulus (∣E*∣) of hot-mix asphalt mixes is one of the most time-consuming and labour-intensive material metrics to evaluate in the laboratory. This study introduces a novel paradigm for assessing the ∣E*∣'s most influential elements by employing widely accepted literature models. Witczak 1-37A, Witczak 1-40D, and Modified Hirsch Models are selected for analysing the asphalt dynamic modulus. First, a thorough laboratory database of Arizona State University is used to account for all major input factors, such as mixture gradation, binder qualities, volumetric properties, and testing conditions parameters, during models' validation. Second, each model's performance is evaluated using standard measures to build confidence levels in the subsequent analysis stage. Finally, with the aid of Latin Hypercube Simulation, a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is performed. Three unique GSA approaches are used; namely, elementary effects, variance-based, and PAWN methods, to highlight the effect of each input variable on the magnitude of ∣E*∣. Different GSA tools are strongly recommended since there is no analytical tool for validating the findings with the complex formulations of the selected mathematical models. The GSA demonstrates that the voids ratio in total mix, binder shear modulus, viscosity, phase angle, and binder quantity are the most significant factors.