Analysing Vulnerabilities of local communities to flood disasters in the Lower Rufiji Floodplain, Tanzania

Abstract

Climate change scenario shows that areas with bimodal rainfall pattern and major river basins including the Rufiji basin are anticipated to receive an increase of rainfall intensity by 5% to 45%, with a decrease of raining seasons. This incident is expected to upsurge the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events and cause serious devastations to vulnerable communities. This paper examined the progression of factors causing community vulnerability to flood disasters as basis for developing appropriate flood risk reduction strategies. Data collection methods involved household survey, focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, remote sensing and hydrological analysis. The household survey and hydrological data were analysed using Statistical Packages for Social Science and Trend Analysis software. Data from focus group discussion and interviews were triangulated with community during participatory discussions. Results showed high degree of community vulnerability to flood impacts extending from geographical, social, economic, political and environmental factors. The catchment delineation model showed that the community is geographically located in flood hazardous areas because the river networks flow into the study area. Also, severity of flood impacts was locally related by the recent influx of cattle in the area which has contributed to land degradation, increased runoff and siltation of the Rufiji river. Furthermore, lack of access to social services such as education, health, water and sanitation facilities were found to largely reduce socioeconomic abilities while illuminating underlying vulnerabilities of study communities to flood impacts. The findings suggested combining underlying and immediate factors in reducing future community vulnerability to flood disasters.