Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management

Abstract

This study analyses the volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries using daily data over the period from January 2010 to December 2016. The study also explores the portfolio and hedging implications based on dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and corrected DCC (cDCC) GARCH models. For the analysis, we have used symmetric and asymmetric versions of DCC and cDCC models. Specifically, in the symmetric version of DCC and cDCC, the estimations are based on GARCH (1,1), and in the asymmetric version of DCC and cDDC, the estimations are based on GJR-GARCH (1,1), FIGARCH (1,1) and FIEGARCH (1,1) models, and for each case, we have explored the portfolio and hedging implications. Overall, the evidence indicates that oil-importing countries are severely affected by lagged oil price shocks, and there is less evidence of interdependence between stock markets for both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Further, we find that the lagged volatility in the oil market and stock market has a statistically significant impact on the current volatility in its respective markets. The results from the asymmetric analysis show that the magnitudes of the negative shocks are higher than those of the positive shocks. The overall results from portfolio optimization reveal that investors in oil-exporting countries should hold more oil assets in the portfolio to hedge the risk.