Abstract
A generalised additive model is developed using annual mean ozone concentration as dependent variable and Cartesian coordinates, altitude, proximity to coast and nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentration as independent variables, which are all easy to obtain and apply. The model shows high concentrations at higher altitudes and closer proximity to coasts and an underlying south easterly trend in the UK. NOx, which is mainly derived from road traffic in urban areas, is negatively associated with ozone and appears to provide a good descriptor for urban versus rural locations. Used in combination with previously published NOx projections, the model estimates an average 26% increase in urban ozone across the UK by 2020. The spatial variability of annual ozone concentration (µg/m3) is compared with health related ozone metrics (SOMO35 µg/m3 hr) and the metrics set up for the protection of agricultural crops (AOT40 µg/m3).
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