Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators

Abstract

The EU established an early warning system by introducing the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in the wake of the recent recession. Nevertheless, it has been found by some authors to be rather vague when launching the Excessive Imbalances Procedure. Performed analysis reflects on such views and treats the MIP indicators as a system while assessing the significance of all particular variables separately. This assessment was accomplished by applying a multivariate unbalanced logit model, utilising all 14 MIP headline indicators, using time horizons ranging from one to three years before crisis, which was represented by periods with output gap lower than negative 2 per cent. The approach was confronted with the estimates of a linear probability model to provide an idea about the robustness of the results. In the short term, activity rates, youth unemployment rates and private sector debt are the best performing indicators, complemented by current account balances in the long term.