Abstract
The integration of more variable renewable energy sources (vRES) like wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) is expected to play a significant role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector. However, unlike conventional thermal generators, the generation patterns of vRES are spatially dependent, and the spatial distributions of wind and PV capacity can help or hinder their integration into the power system. After reviewing existing approaches for spatially distributing vRES, we present a new method to optimise the mix and spatial distribution of wind and PV capacity in Europe based on minimising residual demand. We test the potential of this method by modelling several scenarios exploring the effects of vRES penetration, alternative demand profiles, access to wind sites located far offshore, and alternative PV configurations. Assuming a copper-plate Europe without storage, we find an optimum vRES penetration rate of 82% from minimising residual demand, with an optimum capacity mix of 74% wind and 26% PV. We find that expanding offshore wind capacity in the North Sea is a ‘no regret’ option, though correlated generation patterns with onshore wind farms in neighbouring countries at high vRES penetration rates may lead to significant surplus generation. The presented method can be used to build detailed vRES spatial distributions and generation profiles for power system modelling studies, incorporating different optimisation objectives, spatial and technological constraints. However, even under the ideal case of a copper-plate Europe, we find that neither peak residual demand nor total residual demand can be significantly reduced through the spatial optimisation of vRES.
Highlights
Decarbonisation of the electric power sector is one of the key transitions which must take place as part of Europe’s commitment to reducing CO2 emissions in order to avoid dangerous climate change [1,2]
There are many hurdles to constructing long-distance transmission lines we do not consider which, if taken into account, would impose additional constraints on transmission and reduce the potential benefits of spatial variable renewable energy sources (vRES) optimisation. Despite these transmission simplifications, we show that even in the idealised case of a copper-plate Europe, neither peak residual demand nor total residual demand can be significantly reduced through spatial optimisation of vRES37
In this paper we have presented a method to optimise the spatial distribution of wind and PV capacity by minimising residual demand, incorporating long-term weather data to ensure the robustness of the optimised capacity distributions to different weather years
Summary
Decarbonisation of the electric power sector is one of the key transitions which must take place as part of Europe’s commitment to reducing CO2 emissions in order to avoid dangerous climate change [1,2]. This will be achieved mainly through the integration of more renewable energy sources (RES) such as onshore wind, offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), hydro and biomass into the power system. With several countries aiming to reduce nuclear power capacity and slow development of the European CCS industry [8], a heavier dependence on RES may be more likely.. The question arises, where should all this capacity be built?
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