Analysing the impacts of climate variability on the yield of Kharif rice over Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

AbstractRainfall and temperature are essential climate parameters that determine crop yield variability at a regional level. The purpose of this study is to analyse the impacts of climate variability on the Kharif rice crop in the Punjab regions, Pakistan for the period of 1979–2018. Skewness and kurtosis, standardization, and Mann–Kendall methods were used to measure the effects of climate variability on Kharif rice yield over the Punjab regions, Pakistan. As compared to other regions, high variability in rice yield is found in the Sargodha region. Results revealed that high maximum and minimum temperatures were noticed in all investigated regions of Punjab. More variation in minimum temperature is detected than the maximum temperature in the Central region. The regions in Southern and Western Punjab were mostly influenced by maximum temperature. Mean temperature shows a significant negative relationship to rice yield during a vegetative phase in the Gujranwala and Rawalpindi regions. The maximum temperature has a negative significant effect on the plant establishment resulting in a reduction in the number of rice plants during the tillering and stem elongates stages in Bahawalpur and Sargodha regions. In the Gujranwala and Multan regions, high maximum temperature increases the floral initiation in the rice plant which reduces the rice grain weight in the heading and flowering stages. The minimum temperature declares a significant negative effect on the Kharif yield of rice in the Gujranwala, Faisalabad, and Multan zones during the re‐plantation stage. Rainfall has a significant positive impact on rice yield during the re‐plantation and tillering stages in the Lahore, Sargodha, and D.G. Khan regions, respectively. In other regions, rainfall indicates an insignificant effect in the re‐plantation stage. Overall, rainfall indicates significant effects in re‐plantation and tillering stages in the Lahore, Sargodha, and D.G. Khan zones. The outcomes of the research indicate how the regional variability in rainfall and temperature affects Kharif rice yield in Punjab, Pakistan.