Analysing the firm failure process using Bayesian networks

Abstract

This work analyses the firm failure process stages using the Bayesian Network as a modelling tool because it allows us to identify causal relationships in the firm profile. We use publicly available data on French, Italian and Russian firms containing five samples corresponding to periods from one to five years before observation. Our results confirm that there is a difference between the stages of the failure process. For firms at the beginning of a lengthy process (3–5 years before observation), cumulative profitability is the key that determines liquidity. Then, as the process develops, leverage comes to the fore in the medium term (1–2 years before observation) for economies with more uncertainty. This factor limits the opportunities for making a profit, leading to further development of the failure. There are also national specifics that are caused, firstly, by the level of economic development and, secondly, economic policy uncertainty.