Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO<SUB align="right">2 emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in China from 1979 to 2010. We propose a segmented equation for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The partial least squares method is used to estimate the equation parameters. The conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) China's CO2 emissions are still in the first stage of the EKC. A significant increase in income per capita is needed for China's CO2 emissions per capita to reach its peak point in the inverted U-shaped EKC; 2) the ideal equation used to simulate the relationship between China's income per capita and CO2 emissions per capita after 2010 is In(Ct) = −13.3568 + 3.1708In(It) − 0.1608(In(It))2. This equation can help China's government set its ideal CO2 control target at a specific income per capita, at least until the income per capita reaches RMB 19,137.2; 3) China's CO2 emissions per capita will peak some time between 2026 and 2027. After 2027, China's CO2 emissions per capita will decrease as income per capita increases.