Analysing Technology Implementation Alternatives in the Portuguese Bioenergy Sector

Abstract

AbstractWhile decarbonizing economy, governments must foresee the needs of technology development so that appropriate measures are put in place. In biomass-related energy transition, complexity can be high given the multiple technological paths available to convert feedstock into final energy products, system requirements, as well as user acceptance and demand characteristics, all evolving rapidly. This calls for energy systems’ modelling and evaluation as a basis for decision taking. Departing from estimated conversion efficiency for nine thermo-, bio- and chemical technological paths, from estimated endogenous resource availability, from medium-term (2030) energy demand as provided in the Portuguese National Energy-Climate Plan modelling, and from objective functions related to energy production, a mathematical programming technique was used to determine optimized biomass allocation. This study allows identifying which and how much feedstock (wood, grass, sludge, oils, etc.) would go into each path. Results obtained were further worked with a high-level multi-criteria decision analysis approach to compare alternatives in the context of the energy system of 2030. Stakeholders’ points of view in areas like technology maturity, access to raw materials, security of supply, regional development and national strategic objectives were considered. With respect to the energy system, with plenty of renewables and electricity storage, reducing energy external dependency was considered a main driver. In this case, capacity expansion priority would be on alternatives with centralized production of renewable gases and advanced biofuels. Concerning electricity and heat production, decentralized solutions would be preferred to centralized options, determined by regional development and industrial needs.KeywordsBiomassEnergyMulti-criteriaOptimizationRenewable