Analysing spatial patterns and trend of future urban expansion using SLEUTH

Abstract

With the onset of rapid urban growth in the past 3 decades, a developing country for instance India, Africa, etc. has resulted in climatic and environmental changes severely. Pace of urban growth has increased in India post 2000’s because of key driving economic factors coupled with industrial development promoting job opportunities and promising better life style. This has led to cities expanding towards periphery and rural neighbourhood causing urban sprawl. Continuous increase in the built-up area is also responsible for rise in the surface temperature modifying the rainfall patterns and affecting the biodiversity of the region. This communication focuses mainly on the recent urban growth challenges and changing land surface temperature by developing Indian cities with very minimum landscape to house burgeoning population, immediate strategies and action-plan required to mitigate negative environmental impacts and effects on human beings. Further, the study attempts to correlate the dynamic land use change, land cover, land surface temperature and future urban growth scenario for one of the most systematically planned city of India, Chandigarh. Analysis was performed using open source coding and software platforms such as GRASS, QGIS and shell scripting. The study elaborates land use modelling for the year 2025 by adopting cellular automata based open source SLEUTH model The documentation and source code of SLEUTH model are publically available. The model was tested and calibrated in three different modes: coarse, fine and full resolution. The calibration mode showed high spread coefficient suggesting the urban sprawl would take organic growth. Open source software and coding would help in increased scientific output as it would help researchers understand the code that is being implemented and helps in improvisation of exiting codes to variety of applications. Results of this study would help in developing necessary policy measures and sustainable actions that are required to reduce anthropogenic effects on urban and natural environment.