Abstract
AbstractThis study proposes the price behaviour of turmeric in major producing states of India using a longitudinal research design. The results of the co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) test are showing the presence of a short-run relationship among some states. Then, Granger causality test illustrates the directional movement between the dependent variables (Odisha) and independent variables (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamilnadu and Telangana). Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to predict weekly turmeric prices for the state of Odisha, India, during the year 2020. From the AGMARKNET Website, price data for all states has been taken, which is from January 2004 to December 2019. The model is validated using MAPE and RMSE. The study outcome is beneficial for the farming community and other related stakeholders.KeywordsCo-integrationVECMGranger causalityARIMA
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