Analysing Latin American and Caribbean forest vulnerability from socio-economic factors

Rhys Manners,Consuelo Varela-Ortega

doi:10.1080/1943815x.2017.1400981

Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1080/1943815x.2017.1400981

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Abstract

Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) forest cover reduced by 9% from 1990 to 2015, affecting biodiversity, climate change mitigation and ecosystem service functionality. These losses are caused by a myriad of interconnected, interdependent and often socio-economic processes, which forest vulnerability metrics largely ignore in their assessments. To address this, we develop the Deforestation Vulnerability Index (DVI) to identify spatial and temporal patterns of forest vulnerability from socio-economic processes. Composed of 13 socio-economic indicators, the DVI was applied to 24 LAC countries, and three provincial (sub-national) examples for the period 2000–2010. The DVI showed that vulnerability declined in more than 60% of countries, due to governance improvements and reductions in agricultural expansion. Provincial application of the index showed provinces to be more vulnerable than countries, due largely to higher economic dependence upon agriculture. Observed vulnerability reductions, whilst deforestation continues, may demonstrate a lag between socio-economic improvements and subsequent deforestation reductions, or the effects of omitted or unidentified vulnerability indicators. The DVI represents a simple, yet effective tool whose outputs could be used by policy-makers and stakeholders to source vulnerability at the scale of application, whilst assisting in directing reactive and responsive sustainable forest management strategies and decision-making.

Highlights

Global forest area declined by 5.2% from 1990 to 2015 (FAO 2015a), this deforestation was not evenly distributed, with hotspots like Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) seeing losses of more than 9% during the same period (FAO 2015a)
This demonstrates that vulnerability reduced marginally in Amazonian countries including in Bolivia (−4%) and Brazil (−6%), whilst highlighting the difference in vulnerability change in neighbouring countries
The Deforestation Vulnerability Index (DVI) has demonstrated the potential for identifying spatial and temporal patterns of forest vulnerability to deforestation stemming from socio-economic factors and processes

Summary

Introduction

Global forest area declined by 5.2% from 1990 to 2015 (FAO 2015a), this deforestation was not evenly distributed, with hotspots like Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) seeing losses of more than 9% during the same period (FAO 2015a). These forest losses have been linked with inhibited climate change mitigation potential (Smith et al 2014; FAO 2015b), biodiversity losses (Peres et al 2010; Pereira et al 2012; Haddad et al 2015), and degraded forest provisioned ecosystem services (Spracklen et al 2012; Boysen et al 2014; Brienen et al 2015). The consequences of long-term exposure of forests to these diverse and multi-scalar socio-economic processes are the deforestation rates highlighted by the FAO (FAO 2015a)

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