Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure

Andrew C W Leung,William A Gough,Tanzina Mohsin

doi:10.3390/forecast4010006

Andrew C W Leung, William A Gough + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006

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Abstract

The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship between atmospheric variables and soil temperature are determined using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a climatological data set. SDSM was found to replicate historic soil temperatures well and used to project soil temperatures for the remainder of the century using climate model output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2). Three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This study found that the soil temperature at this location may warm at 0.9 to 1.2 °C per decade at various depths. Annual soil temperatures at all depths are projected to rise to above 0 °C for the 1997–2026 period for all climate scenarios. The melting soil poses a hazard to the airport infrastructure and will require adaptation measures.

Highlights

IntroductionIn Canada, many indigenous peoples live in remote Northern communities without year-round road access
The Arctic experiences one of the fastest-warming climates on Earth [1]
The difference in the correlation between air temperature and soil temperature at various depths were mainly attributed to the thermal capacity of soil that acted as a buffer against radiative forcing from the surface

Summary

Introduction

In Canada, many indigenous peoples live in remote Northern communities without year-round road access These communities rely heavily on air transportation to fly in goods, produce and passengers. The permafrost extent at Kuujjuaq has been identified as discontinuous during the study period [4] and this suggests that the airport infrastructure may be vulnerable to melting permafrost [5]. In addition to these pragmatic concerns, Oelke and Zhang [6] describe soil temperature measurements as an important and sensitive climate indicator because this variable reflects the integrated impact of climate processes such as surface air temperature, snowfall, evaporation rate and soil moisture variation [7]. Soil temperature was identified as one of the key drivers for the vegetation phenology and productivity in the Arctic tundra biome [8]

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