Analysing an epidemic-economic model in the presence of novel corona virus infection: capital stabilization, media effect, and the role of vaccine.

Abstract

The pandemic being a health issue at its core is a multifaceted crisis encompassing both economic and epidemic factors in a twisted tale of challenges. In counteraction, we have proposed a combined epidemic–economic model that analyses system dynamics arising in the presence of an infectious disease (SARS-2-COVID-19 in our case). Dynamical analysis of the system has been performed in context to the equilibria along with local and global stability analysis of the system simultaneously visualizing the effect on capital stabilization. The global stability analysis has been performed using graph-theoretic method. Curve-Fit has been performed for the system using optimization algorithm. The relation between all the parameters and variables involved in the model has been explored by calculating sensitivity indices which gives us the proportion that a relative change in a parameter brings to the relative change in a variable. Our findings reveal that (1) Vaccination instigates economic growth (with evidence of data obtained for 24 countries). (2) Complete vaccination leads to a considerable reduction in all infections (reduction up to 90%, as per current CDC study). (3) Excessive exposure to media can facilitate spike in infections. (4) Parameter sensitivity analysis can be of immense help in policy formation.