Abstract
This study analyzed changes in CenTrends gridded precipitation (1961–2015) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET; 1961–2008) across the Lake Kyoga Basin (LKB). PET was computed from gridded temperature of the Princeton Global Forcings. Correlation between precipitation or PET and climate indices was analyzed. PET in the Eastern LKB exhibited an increase (p > 0.05). March–April–May precipitation decreased (p > 0.05) in most parts of the LKB. However, September–October–November (SON) precipitation generally exhibited a positive trend. Rates of increase in the SON precipitation were higher in the Eastern part where Mt. Elgon is located than at other locations. Record shows that Bududa district at the foot of Mt. Elgon experienced a total of 8, 5, and 6 landslides over the periods 1818–1959, 1960–2009, and 2010–2019, respectively. It is highly probable that these landslides have recently become more frequent than in the past due to the increasing precipitation. The largest amounts of variance in annual precipitation (38.9%) and PET (41.2%) were found to be explained by the Indian Ocean Dipole. These were followed by precipitation (17.9%) and PET (21.9%) variance explained by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, and North Atlantic oscillation, respectively. These findings are vital for predictive adaptation to the impacts of climate variability on water resources.
Highlights
Within the River Nile basin, Lake Kyoga links Lake Victoria to Lake Albert
If such trends the future especially in the Equatorial region, the are to continue into the future especially in the Equatorial region
This study showed that the precipitation from the rainy seasons across the study area is correlated, to varying extents, with IOD, Niño 3, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) or North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)
Summary
Within the River Nile basin, Lake Kyoga links Lake Victoria to Lake Albert. the LakeKyoga Basin (LKB) is the least studied among the River Nile tributaries [1]. Within the River Nile basin, Lake Kyoga links Lake Victoria to Lake Albert. Kyoga Basin (LKB) is the least studied among the River Nile tributaries [1]. This is due to lack of quality observed long-term hydrometeorological data. In the sub-Saharan Africa (where the LKB is located), weather stations are of low density, unevenly distributed, and not continuously operational due to poor maintenance of data recording equipment or instruments [2]. Studies tend to be conducted using short-term data. To investigate the groundwater–surface water interactions of papyrus wetlands in the LKB, Southwell [3] used data observed from July
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