Analyses of duck curve phenomena potential in polish PV prosumer households’ installations

Abstract

In Poland, especially since 2018, a dynamic increase in installed capacity in photovoltaics has been observed. In households with a photovoltaic installation (of which there were about 350,000 in Poland at the end of 2020), a phenomenon called ”duck curve” is observed, consisting in low energy consumption from the power grid (correlated with the simultaneous delivery of the produced PV energy to the grid) during the day and relatively high energy consumption in the evening. This case concerns days with relatively high insolation values.The aim of the work is to analyse data from 608 PV installations, including the estimation of the difference (VDC) between maximum hourly electricity overproduction and maximum hourly net electricity consumption from the grid. The maximum monthly VDC value (calculated as the average of daily values) in 2019 reached the level of 2.9 kW per one prosumer household. Calculation for each day of 2019 allowed to determine the maximum VDC value of 3.9 kW, counting on a prosumer household. The median of this value (for 365 days) was 2.08 kW. It is estimated that the maximum power fluctuation in the national power grid due to the connection of 400,000 prosumer households in the grid is approximately 1.6 GW.