ANALYSE DE L’INFLUENCE DES PARAMETRES METEOROLOGIQUES SUR LA PLUVIOMETRIE A KINSHASA

Abstract

The understanding of meteorological parameters influencing rainfall is essential to effectively address environmental challenges and anticipate the consequences of extreme weather events. In this study, we analyze meteorological data provided by the Airways Authority of Kinshasa (RVA), covering the period from 1992 to 2019. This in-depth statistical analysis aims to better understand the factors that influence precipitation in the region and to identify relevant climate trends for anticipating future environmental changes. We used logistic regression to assess the impact of various climatic factors such as temperature (daily extremes), relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure on precipitation. The results indicate that minimum temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure show a strong correlation with rainfall in Kinshasa, highlighting their significant influence on the likelihood of precipitation. In contrast, maximum temperature has a limited impact, making it a less reliable indicator of rainfall in the city. The conclusions of this study provide valuable tools for local authorities in developing effective strategies for managing climate variations and predicting weather phenomena. These insights enable precise modeling of the impacts of meteorological fluctuations on ecosystems and urban infrastructure. Furthermore, the results of this research can guide local farmers in optimizing their agricultural practices by adjusting planting and harvesting schedules based on detailed weather forecasts, thereby minimizing economic losses and enhancing crop resilience to climate variations. Finally, this study provides climatologists with robust data for in-depth analysis of the effects of climate change on meteorological phenomena in Kinshasa. This knowledge is crucial for refining regional climate models and developing specific adaptation strategies for other urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa.