Analiza demografskih resursa Beogradskog regiona na početku XXI veka

Abstract

The intensive reduction of the labor contingent and the continuous process of demographic ageing of the labor force raises the issue of human capital development and the need to increase the level of demographic resources. For decades, Serbia has been facing negative demographic tendencies, such as long-time negative natural increase, population emigration and disruptions in demographic structures, which has caused the creation of divergent poles of development. The purpose of this research is to evaluate and more accurately analyze spatial differences in the value of the indicators of demographic development of the municipalities of Belgrade region during the period 2011 - 2022. The methodological framework of the paper is a synthetic indicator, index of demographic resources, that considers the interdependence of natural components of demographic development, age structure of the population and educational characteristics as a demographic element of human resource development. The interdependence of these components indicates the vitality of the studied space in the present time and the demographic potential in the future. The results showed significant polarization between the central and peri-urban municipalities of Belgrade. The higher values of the studied index central municipalities owe to the high shares of the educated population and students, while the values of the demographic index among municipalities are quite uniform.