Analisys of organizational and technological reliability at the level of the schedule time parameters determination

Abstract

Problem statement. One of the main tasks of the construction organization is to comply with the terms of construction of the object according to the design decisions. Organizational and technological reliability of construction determines the ability of a construction organization to achieve its purposes at given input parameters. When developing a time schedule, there is a contradiction between the probabilistic nature of real processes and the determined methods of their description. When the calculations are of a predictable nature, it is necessary to include into the calculation the probabilistic component, which determines the probability of a certain event occurring in the future. This is especially true of scheduling because of the prediction of indicators of the duration of production processes can be carried out only with a certain level of probability. The study is devoted to solve a scientific and applied problem of increasing the reliability of planning at the stage of determining the time parameters of construction processes as part of a schedule. The factors affecting the planned time of construction and installation work in the schedule are considered. The approach was used, according to which the time of completion of a certain amount of work is depended from the performer’s output and the intensity of the work. The duration of the work is not a deterministic value, but a range (interval) of possible values that can be described using the normal distribution, β-distribution and α-distribution. The purpose of the article is to determine the rational level of organizational and technological reliability of schedule time parameters. Conclusions. The reliability of the construction schedule completely depends on the accuracy of time parameters. The dependence between the output of performers and the reliability of work in the planning period is established. The rational level of organizational and technological reliability of the construction schedule at the stage of its time parameters modeling is determined.