Analisis Peramalan Persediaan Bahan Baku dan Penentuan Stok Penyangga (Buffer Stock) Udang Vaname (Littopenaeus Vannamei)

Abstract

This study examines the analysis of raw material inventory forecasting and buffer stock of vaname shrimp at one of the fishery companies in Makassar Industrial Estate (PT Bogatama Marinusa Makassar). The analysis method used to determine the supply of raw materials needed by the company is the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method. This method is used to forecast raw material inventory on time series data. Determination of buffer stock is done using standard deviation and policy factors. Vaname shrimp (Littopenaeus vannamei) raw material data was obtained from 2020 to 2022 (156 weeks). The results showed that the highest amount of raw material inventory occurred in October week 147 in 2022, amounting to 152,792 tons, while the lowest amount of raw material inventory occurred in May week 122 in 2022, amounting to 13,102 tons. The best vaname shrimp raw material inventory model is the ARIMA (1,1,1) model which has a Sum Square Error (SSE) value of 1.70250, Mean Square Error (MSE) value of 0.0112007. This model is used to forecast raw material inventory for the next 48 weeks. The forecasting results show that there will be a decrease in week 1 to week 6 and a relative increase in raw materials in week 7 to week 48 with a MAPE value of 4.54%. The amount of buffer stock that must be owned by the company is 37.311 tons.