Abstract
In order to strengthening cooperation regional and form the strength regional in ASEAN, likely require to relate at successful European Union in forming financial and economic market integration (EMU). ME become the “model" a success economic integration. We can conclude that to reach monetary union have to beforehand realized by economic union supported by union and strong politics willingness, where this matter have been blazed the way old in such a way by leaders of European countries of West which is merged into EMU. Intention of this research is to see the international parity condition of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and rate of interest parity (UIP) of among currency in ASEAN-5 with the currency of United States. Result of this research obtained is show that the goodness of theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and rate of interest parity (UIP) cannot be holded for the nations of ASEAN-5. In general, hypothesis ß 1=1 refused by existing data. This fact is indication that PPP and UIP cannot be holded during period 1980.01 until 2004.12. With do not hold of two the parity (PPP and UIP) hence possibility to existing of monetary uni ASEAN likely still will passing sufficient process.
Highlights
Dunia bisnis pada awal 1990-an mencatat hubungan bisnis global yang semakin menjalar ke seluruh negara di dunia
by economic union supported by union
old in such a way by leaders of European countries of West which is merged into EMU
Summary
Transaksi-transaksi ini adalah hasil dari keputusan perdagangan barang antar negara, manipulasi dana internasional dengan menggunakan ketidakpastian tingkat bunga, dan ekspektasi dengan spekulasi, sebagaimana mereka juga menghadapi resikonya. St dan ft adalah spot dan forward exchange rates, dinominasikan dengan unit mata uang domestik per unit mata uang asing; Δpte menunjukkan ekspektasi tingkat inflasi; dan rt tingkat suku bunga nominal. Dalam gambar 1 memperlihatkan bahwa dalam sistem kurs mengambang bebas, kurs spot di masa mendatang secara teoritis ditentukan oleh interaksi antara perbedaan laju inflasi, perbedaan suku bunga dan premi/ diskon forward. Bila inflasi di Perancis diharapkan 3% lebih tinggi dibanding inflasi di AS pada tahun depan, maka nilai franc Perancis diperkirakan akan menurun sekitar 3% relatif terhadap dollar AS. Suku bunga berjangka satu tahun di Perancis diperkirakan 3% lebih tinggi dibanding suku bunga berjangka waktu yang sama di AS
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