Analisis Model Manajemen Permintaan SCM dan Peramalan Penjualan Busana Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Sales forecasting is a highly crucial strategy in the business world, as it significantly contributes to enhancing a company's profits. In this context, sales transaction forecasting plays a vital role in assisting business decision-makers in planning effective sales strategies. The utilization of the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method in sales forecasting demonstrates an effective approach. In this study, this method was applied to retail sales data of Muslim clothing from 2021 to 2023. By setting the parameters ? = 0.9, ? = 0.1, and ? = 0.1, the forecasting results indicate a high level of accuracy with low values for Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), amounting to 29.93, 295.93, and 0.62%, respectively. Consequently, the forecast reveals that the inventory of clothing for periods 13 to 16 is 83, 228, 129, and 115, respectively